Mystics Points
What you should know going into the Mystics playoff run
As someone who obsessively gets into one thing (the Wizards) and has stayed in that lane for most of my life, I don’t know if I could really sustain another team obsession without neglecting my family, job, and general well-being. I will occasionally meet someone who watches the NBA and college basketball, which is truly a commitment. And not only because college ball is basically five months of the puppy bowl with some “it’s ok to gamble at the office” time thrown in. And yet. I have become a Mystics fan.
I am not going to try to sell you on the WNBA or the Mystics. The Mystics are about to kick off their best of three first-round playoffs series against the Seattle Storm. Just try to catch a game and see for yourself. The Mystics play with so much joy and intensity that it’s tough not to fall for this team. They have the best defense in the league, a few promising young rookies, and just enough random flops over the regular season to add some exciting uncertainty to the playoffs. This post is for anyone who hasn’t made the jump to the Mystics yet, but wants some context to get started.
As Delle Donne Goes
If you have read anything about the Mystics, it’s probably the oft repeated statement that when Elena Delle Donne plays, the team wins, and when she sits, they lose. Delle Donne has been rehabbing three herniated discs over the past three years, and has played 25 of the team’s 36 games this season. Of these, the Mystics won 18. Without the two-time MVP, they have won four and lost seven.
Inspired by the great Owen Phillips, I decided to look at how much better or worse the team is when each player is on and off the court. As you can see in the figure below, the Mystics score +12 points with Delle Donne on the court.
I’ve noted before that on-off stats are not anyone’s favorite and plus/minus also has its issues. As expected, all of the starters are a net positive for the Mystics, but even some of the players who are stronger on defense, like rookie Shakira Austin, are helping the team win on offense.
The Mystics are Still Evolving
The world is a tough place. Covid-19 surges, Brittany Griner is still in a Russian prison, players fight through injuries and indignities. The Mystics have been a good team all season. But they have had ups and downs, including a few losses to low ranked teams like Los Angeles and Atlanta. In a late regular season win against the second place Las Vegas Aces, point guard Natasha Cloud told the Washington Post’s Kareem Copeland something that is clear from watching the team:
“We’re starting to jell [sic] and we’re starting to click and we’re starting to get really [expletive] scary and we’re peaking at the right time,” Cloud said. “We knew that this was going to happen. We knew if we just … stuck to our plan and the process that this is where we’re going to be. So we’re just trying to finish out the season strong and prepare ourselves for playoffs.”
This late season cohesion doesn’t necessarily pop out from the box score stats. One exception is offensive rebounds. The team is ranked fifth overall in total rebounds and sixth in both offensive and defensive rebounds. As shown in the figure below, they have been up and down over the season on the offensive end, which speaks to the team starting to gel and communicate on the boards.
The Mystics are a rebounding powerhouse. They are ranked fifth in total rebounds with 1,258 on the season.. As the top ranked defense in the WNBA, the Mystics have held teams to an average of 75.9 points per game according to basketball-reference and have some of the best perimeter defense in the league. The team’s strong defense is something to watch against Seattle, which has the second best 3-point percentage. What makes this match up interesting is that both teams are evenly matched, but Washington is still coming into its final form.
Watch Natasha Cloud
The Mystics star point guard is the league’s leader in assist, but there’s more to the story than that. Cloud’s assist numbers are higher on the road—111 to 128 on the season—with 29 total against Seattle this year per basketball-reference. Maybe because I have on-off on the brain, I think this is the thing that makes me hopeful about the Mystics run: their offensive rating when Cloud is on the court is 104.4, but only drops to 103.4 when she is off. Yes, she has played the second most minutes of anyone else on the team (at 1,065, right after Ariel Atkins at 1,081). But the fact that there is not a huge drop off while she rests is something to pay attention to. Back-up guard Rui Machida is undersized and acrobatic, but not as dominant on either end of the court.
As important as Delle Donne is going to be for this series, the great thing about the Mystics is that they truly play team ball. Cloud runs a great offense, but the team can still get to the basket during the limited periods while she sits. This is particularly critical given that Cloud is slated to miss Game 1 after getting injured in the last game of the regular season. What will be worth watching is how Coach Mike Thibault pairs and staggers her time with Delle Donne to maximize both players.
Quick Hits
The Mystics are set up nicely at the Center-Forward position. As mentioned above, rookie Shakira Austin has the second best defensive rating in the league, while Elizabeth Williams is ranked third.
Ariel Atkins has the team’s only alley oop made during the regular season.
The Mystics are flying across the country to play at Seattle’s Climate Pledge Arena, which is the first arena to set a goal of carbon neutrality, which is, uh, complicated and tough to say the least, but kind of neat! This still seems like a better name than the Mystics’ “Entertainment and Sports Arena,” which seems like the placeholder the architect used and then forgot to update when he finished plans for their stadium.