"A very heavy lift": the Wizards Points annual season primer!
An updated Wizards 101 for an updated team!
Fall has arrived. Depending on where you’re reading this, the weather is either unseasonably warm or disturbingly cold, it’s probably flooding or you’re in a drought, and there’s a good chance some area nearby or down/up wind is on fire. The husk of a functional government we have barely avoided a shutdown. The global mosquito population is growing. Not to get too dramatic, but it’s looking rough out there. Don’t fret. NBA basketball is almost here!
Every year,1 Wizards Points puts together a gentle introduction to the Wizards. Last year’s overview started with the very basics—how many players there are on a typical team, what the roles are—so if you are sharing this with a friend coming in completely cold, that piece is worth a read first. But, if you have a general sense of what the NBA is, the fact that you’re not supposed to kick the basketball, and that the Wizards haven’t been good for the past few years, this is a post to get caught up and hyped for the 2023-24 season.
The two big things you need to know
The key story of this upcoming season is the change in leadership of both the Wizards management and overall basketball operations for Monumental Sports and Entertainment, the team’s ownership group. For the past 20 years, the Wizards general manager—i.e., the person making key staffing decisions, overseeing contracts, basically taking care of the business side of the business—rested in the hands of Ernie Grunfeld (from 2003 through 2019) and then Grunfeld’s #2, Tommy Sheppard. The 2022-23 season ended poorly, Sheppard gave an interview followed by a press conference that can only be described as child-standing-next-to-broken-vase-holding-a-ball saying, “I have no idea what happened to the vase.” More specifically, he graded the Wizards 12th place conference finish as an “incomplete,” telling the Monumental Sports Network (née NBC Sports Washington), “I don’t think it’s a talent equation. I think we need to continue to do better to maximize what we do have and add some strategic pieces.” It is rare that a single moment leads to someone’s downfall, but this was close because it was so objectively out of step with how fans and even some players felt after yet another losing season in DC. Sheppard was let go 10 days after the interview.2
In Sheppard’s place, owner Ted Leonsis brought in Michael Winger as “Monumental Basketball president.” Winger then hired Will Dawkins as general manager of the Wizards. There has been a lot written about both of these guys,3 but the thing to know is that they both come from organizations (the Thunder for both, the Clippers and Cavs for Winger) that have had success building strong organizations and winning.
This is the first key thing to know: the people hiring and firing have changed. They have made it clear that the Wizards are rebuilding and that rebuilding is going to be “a heavy lift,” that it’s going to take time. The second key thing to know is this all a way of saying the Wizards are going to be bad. And being bad is the point for a bunch of reasons, but basically it gives the team the freedom to develop talent and improve its chances of getting better in the future.
Wait, the team is saying they are going to be bad. On purpose. And I should still watch?
Yes! Because the team will be focusing on development and has brought in several new players (more on this below) who will be fun to watch, this will probably be one of the most creative, weird, and, well, memorable seasons in DC that we’ve seen in a while. Depending on your personality, there is also some cachet is getting in on the ground floor of a new team, of being there back when. The secret handshake of many NBA fans is their deep-cut favorite player. Being able to say you really enjoyed Eugene Omoruyi coming off the bench will say more than having to explain you read a random Substack post a friend forwarded, watched a few games, and, “yeah, I guess I kind of like the Wizards now.”
The other reason to watch beyond this broad meta-narrative sketched above that involves team management and the potential (though very real) idea of growth, is the players. This squad is odd. At a time when NBA teams are more talented than at any point in the league’s history, when many people get paid a lot of money to eke out marginal advantages through roster construction, this upcoming Wizards team is poised to be as graceful as a sixth grade growth spurt. The beauty of a rebuild is that everyone has an incentive to push themselves. If things go well—and this is where the coach will be important—it will mean pushing individual skills to advance team cohesion. At worst, we’ll get some highlights interspersed with a lot of broken plays, guys gesturing wildly, and quick cuts back to the announcers’ booth. But in the end, guys are either playing to get traded to a non-rebuilding team, to stay in the league, or get a contract. This is always true, but rarely has leadership made it clear they will be patient with players figuring out their game in real time. This is the “there are no stupid questions” moment for the Wizards. Of course, there will be stupid questions, or moments, which will also be fun to watch. So, yes, you should tune in if only to see a fairly unique organizational and sporting moment in history—a time when it’s ok to learn and fail.
How about the players?
Each NBA team can have 15 players. The Wizards have guaranteed contracts for 17 players. According to our models, 17 is more than 15, so two players will need to be cut before the home opener at the end of October. Here is at least one thing to know about each player currently on contract for the team.
The Bigs
Taj Gibson: at 38 years old, Taj returns to the Wizards team to make sure their games don’t completely descend into the Puppy Bowl. Something to watch: what line-ups is he in? Last season, the most efficient three-point shooting (75%) and some of the best defense per 100 possessions were on the few Gibson-Avdija-Kispert-Morris (not on the team any more)-Beal (also gone) line-ups. But really, Gibson is on the team to make it ok to go to bed early.
Mike Muscala: brought over from Boston as part of a three-team trade, Muscala replaces Kristaps Porziņģis as a big man who can shoot and also brings a veteran presence to the team. Seventy percent of his attempts last season were from three, so he will give the Wizards some spacing. Muscala joined Boston last year from Oklahoma City, another team in the midst of a rebuild, so he understands the “very heavy lift.” One thing to watch: whether coach Wes Unseld Jr. will pair Muscala and returning Center-Forward Daniel Gafford as a new version of his at least somewhat effective “twin towers” line-up from last year. Speaking of…
Daniel Gafford: I like Gaff. He gave us one of the best dunks in all of basketball last year, but he also just seems like a friendly dude who wants to play some ball, go home, and eat Pop-Tarts while watching cartoons and playing video games like any other reasonable person.
The thing that Gaff started doing a bit more last season was diversifying his game beyond dunks. In the 2022-23 season, one in five of his shot attempts were five feet or farther away from the basket. This is up from about 1 in 10 the season before. I personally would like to see Gaff’s shooting game evolve, but it’s also something to watch now that there is a little more freedom to grow.
Forwards—Other Tall Guys
I’m going to have to really scale down the content of each of these bullets if I want to cover each player. At least one of these players (not Kuzma) will likely be gone by the time the season starts, so don’t get too emotionally attached based on the next few bullets.
Kyle Kuzma: after signing a multi-year deal over the summer with the Wizards, this will be a season for Kuz to round out his game. He set a personal record last season for lost ball turnovers (52, per basketball-reference.com). This reflects increasing usage, but he’ll likely have even more of the offense on his back this season, so it will be worth seeing if he can help keep the ball in DC’s hands.
Danilo Gallinari: normally after a trade when the Wizards post on social media, “Welcome [player name]” they use some action shot of the player in uniform. It conveys a sense of, ‘this guy knows how to play basketball!” For Gallinari, the team’s post was him walking to a game in a sport coat, which conveys, “we just traded for someone injured!” One thing to note: he has said he looks forward to getting revenge on Boston. I hope management keeps him on the team for at least long enough to make his revenge dreams come true.
Xavier Cooks: Cooks looked very jet lagged in the few games he played after coming to the US from Down Under at the end of last season. If he manages to stick around this season the big question will be if he can translate his game to the NBA.
Anthony Gill: Another veteran presence.4 At this point, the Wizards need some young guys to make trouble just to give Gill something to do.
Patrick Baldwin Jr.: Second year player coming over from the Warriors. Last year, at age 20, he tried a peanut butter and jelly sandwich for the first time. My main take away is that Patrick Baldwin Jr. was an incredibly stubborn child, teen, and 19-year old given the fact that Big PB&J dominates nearly every rec center, cafeteria, and tired parent’s shopping list. Respect.
Corey Kispert: I think of him as a shooting guard, NBA.com (where I’m pulling all of these stats unless otherwise noted) says he’s a forward. It doesn’t matter. The key thing to watch is whether his defense can improve—opposing teams had an effective field goal percentage about 1.4% better when Kispert was on the court.
Deni Avdija: Last season was kind of a mixed bag for Deni, but this is the season he really needs to step up and decide: am I going to compete with Kyle Kuzma’s high-fashion sense or not. Also, if he can work on his shot and movement in transition that would be good, too.
Guards—the fast, passing-shooting guys
Bilal Coulibaly: the first-round pick from France. The main thing to watch with Coulibaly is literally anything he does since he is a bit of an unknown. The other thing to watch is the inevitable “Bilal visits the monuments for the first time” and “we made Bilal eat McDonalds” team content.
Johnny Davis: last season’s first round-pick had a few highlights at the end of the season when it was clear the Wizards were no longer trying to win. But you know what? The Wizards are not trying to win (or rather they’re working on “development”), so this might be Davis’s time to prove the haters wrong.5 Watch for whether his defense—he held opponents to 24.5 percent from three—can continue to evolve and if he can get in the paint against starters.
Landry Shamet: in my previous post I made a Landry Shamet joke expecting that he would be traded shortly after I hit send. Update: he has not been traded. Watch for whether or not he gets traded or if I have to do a follow-up, deep dive post into his game.
Jordan Poole: DC needs Poole to make games fun with his high velocity play and above average shooting. Poole needs DC to reset his career after a very awkward season with Golden State. This has the makings of either a dramatic 30 for 30 or a heart warming 30 for 30. Watch for whether he can work on becoming more consistent, or if he decides this is just a season to get his shooting stats up en route to a city with taller buildings and/or a beach.
Delon Wright: last year Delon Wright was the one of the few reliable defenders. So much so that his absence due to injury was seen as a borderline existential risk rather than simply a back-up guard going out. Weirdly, there has been very little published about him this off-season. Wright has the second best three-point percentage (34.5%) of players still on the roster after last season and it was actually a bit of a down year for him. Watch to see if he helps improve the Wizards dismal perimeter shooting.
Tyus Jones: There is always a question about whether or not “they can really play” when guys come to the Wizards from teams with major stars. Jones joins DC from Memphis, but has a strong track record there and from Minnesota of keeping turnovers low and assists high. Watch to see if Jones can keep those numbers up and have the team experiment with different roles and line-ups.
Ryan Rollins: Another pick-up from Golden State who spent most of last year, his first in the league, injured. If he sticks around, things can only go up.
So those are the 2023-2024 Wizards. This is less like the Dream Team and more like a reality show, where it’s not clear if Jordan Poole will be the “I’m not here to make friends” contestant or a peacemaker. The other point, which is a bit more abstract is that in rebuilding and giving their players the freedom to learn, the Wizards are letting other teams do the same. Watching the Wizards this year is a chance to also see the future of the league. End of bench second-year players and rookies might get more time against this version of the Wiz kids. More experienced players who have been working on their three might give it a try in DC.
This all feels like…a lot
This is a new direction. The randomness and uncertainty will bring suspense on a team and player level. But suspense makes for great entertainment and occasionally good basketball. At a minimum, any given Wizards game you watch will feature some player stretching their skills and a David-vs-Goliath arc, where Goliath wins 70 percent of the time.
Whether you’re a new fan or a grizzled lifer, this will be a season to pace yourself. There is going to be a ton of inconsistency this season. Some of it will mean performing way above average, some way below the expected average for the team. Let yourself get caught up in the hype, but don’t believe the the hype. Team leadership is building the foundation for a future team and future success that few (and to be real, none) of the players listed above will get to see. All of the text above gets a lot simpler once the teams take to the court. There’s only one thing to do: play.
I have done this exactly one other time.
There’s some parallel universe where Tommy came out and said, “look, we pooped in our swim trunks this season. I’m going to make some calls, see what we can do, and make some changes.” And even if the changes weren’t really much, he’d still have a job because he was at least being up front and honest about the situation.
Gill has only played three season in the NBA, so he’s not as experienced as even some of the young guys, but he played for a while in Europe.
Just to be transparent, I’m the haters. Though I think it’s always good to give rookies some grace to grow their game.