Those who leave and those who stay

We are going to see what this organization is made of during the next Wizards season

There’s a building I pass after dropping my daughter off at daycare on 3rd Street that has been under construction for pretty much her whole life. It’s not so much a building as an echo of one. The developer has kept the old facade of what was a large 19th Century brick office and torn down every thing else. It’s like a stage set that found its way out into the world. I’m sure in a few years there will be a really nice office or condo or condo/office/food hall that looks old timey in the front and modern in the back (unrelated, this is how I describe myself). It’s clear this is to give the new building some character, but it also speaks to the craftsmanship of whoever built the original back in the day: the facade is still durable enough to keep going into the modern era. And so here we are with the Wizards.¹

If you haven’t read the news, Jordan Goodwin will be traded to the Phoenix Suns in a deal that has taken over the NBA news cycle for the holiday weekend. As part of the deal, the Wizards also packaged Bradley Beal, with his quarter billion dollar contract and no trade clause, too. In return, the Wizards got basically nothing: a couple of players—Chris Paul, Landry Shamet—who probably won’t ever put on a pink jersey, or if they do won’t stick around for long, and some number of second round picks. As Josh Robbins in the Athletic noted, this deal gives the Wizards cap flexibility, or as he writes “Washington can take on contracts in trades more easily and, as the price for accepting those contracts, receive future picks.”

I understand fans who are upset about this trade. Upset not because we gave up our marquee player, but because this isn’t so much, “peeing on my leg and telling me it’s raining” as “peeing on my leg and saying, ‘hey, everybody! I’m peeing on this guy’s leg!’” But I think the trade is a good one. Not in the specifics. No, the specifics aren’t great as far as what DC gets and what DC is giving up. This is good for the reasons Robbins mentions, but also for broader reasons.

Yes, the Wizards are putting themselves in a position to rebuild. To get picks and make themselves more flexible into the future. The Grunfeld-Sheppard management era was defined by digging holes and then expending a large amount of everything (money, time, fan attention) to dig out. Michael Winger’s new management team is starting fresh. To paraphrase Hannah Arendt, beginnings almost necessarily require violating the norms that proceeded them. This is the rug pull. This is burning down the old to light the way to a brighter future. All of that is clear and what Robbins and others have written their initial takes about.

This is also, though, a way to see if the Wizards organization and Monumental Sports Entertainment has “good bones” as they say in real estate. We are going to see if this franchise is built strong enough for the aging facade to be maintained while the interior is destroyed and built anew.

When Cleveland has been more of a destination than DC, you have to wonder. What is it about this organization that has kept players away? We’re going to find out now. Was it the GM or something else? Was it the locker room or something else? Was it the #1 guy who wasn’t quite #1, or something else? Well, all of that is getting torn out and rebuilt with a few key exceptions.² In statistics, you often want to isolate an effect to see, all else constant, what the impact of this or that variable is. Michael Winger is getting us there. For this reason, I’m a fan of the trade. Sure, it would have been nice to get a first round pick. But with the no trade clause and injury history and the fact that, as David Aldridge reported, “Beal wanted to play in Phoenix,” there was only so much you can expect.

I have passed the facade of the 19th Century building on 3rd and its gradually destroyed interior for two years. It will be a few more years before there’s a building safe enough for people. Once it’s done, though, the result will hopefully be better. A sense of old DC built for the future. Something people can actually use and enjoy. Or maybe it will sit empty as folks work from home or move to the suburbs. The beauty of this moment is its uncertainty and the fact that it is happening. After years of the same old structure—making marginal offseason moves with the goal of the play-in tournament—the Wizards are moving into a new era. Over the past 25 years, the team’s leadership has basically done the exact wrong thing at nearly every turn—from promoting Andray Blatche to the no trade clause—but this is a chance to set new norms, to reset “the culture.”³ It is not always going to be pretty. It will likely take longer than most fans realize. But if it goes well, the team will not only be in a better place, but we will know that leadership and ownership are willing to do what it takes, including more tough decisions (though hopefully less lopsided ones), to get there step-by-step over the long haul.

1. I’m assuming the Wizards “facade,” that is, all the staff and talent and money swirling around the ownership team actually is strong enough to maintain something new. We will see if that is the case. I don’t really know what happens if this fails, which is very well could.

2. I realize the exceptions, like the coach and much of the key staff, are BIG. But I hope this upcoming season will be a sink-or-swim test case for them, too.

3. Arguably, even this decision to rebuild is poorly timed given the promise of the 2023 draft class and projected weakness of the upcoming draft classes.